Know the game before the puck drops.
| # | Team | GP | Record | GF–GA | Rating | Likely range | Offense | Defense | Form | Schedule | Clutch | PP% | PK% | Special teams |
|---|
From official box scores (GameSheet), regular-season league games only. Power-play chances are estimated from the penalty log: coincidental penalties cancel; each other minor, double minor or major counts as one power play.
| Team | GP | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Total | PP | PP% | PK% | PP score | PK score | ST score | SHG for–against | Scored first (won) | PIM/game | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GF | GA | GF | GA | GF | GA | GF | GA | |||||||||||
Each team gets an offense and a defense number. A game's expected goals come from one team's offense against the other's defense, plus a home-ice bump. All 16 teams are solved together, so beating a strong team is worth more than beating a weak one, and those chains run across the whole league.
Early in the season each team has only 2 to 5 games, so ratings are pulled toward league average until the results prove otherwise. How hard to pull was tuned by predicting each played game with that game held out.
Goals are treated as random arrivals at each team's expected rate. That gives the chance of every final score, from which come the win, tie and loss odds and the most likely results. The big number is the expected goals, rounded.
League games after the first dozen were re-predicted using only earlier games: